Bitcoin Диаграмма Echo Pattern виданная 2015 рынок быков

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  • Bitcoin’s drop from a record high of $20,000 разгонял в декабре 2017 has ended up creating a falling channel similar to the one created in the 18 months leading up to the long-term bullish reversal seen in October 2015.
  • If the same sequence of events unfolds, BTC could see a channel breakout later this year. An early move out of the falling channel cannot be ruled out, but may not yield stronger rally while the crucial 21-week moving average is trending south.
  • The short-term bullish view put forward by the long-tailed doji candle created on Feb. 27 would gain credence if prices break above $4,040 in the next 24 часов, validating the bullish outside reversal candle on the three-day chart. That would open the doors to re-test of recent highs near $4,200.
  • A repeated failure to break above $4,040 could end up fueling a pullback to immediate support at $3,927 (Март 17 низкий).

Bitcoin-х (BTC) 14-month bear market has ended up creating a similar price pattern to one that paved the way for a bull run in 2015.

The cryptomarket leader is currently trading at $4,030 on Bitstamp, having hit a low of $3,122 в декабре. Despite the recovery rally, the price is still down 79.85 percent from the record high of $20,000 reached in December 2017.

Throughout the sell-off, the cryptocurrency has charted a series of lower highs and lower lows, known as descending channel in technical parlance.

Bitcoin produced a similar pattern during the previous bear market witnessed in 2014–2015. More importantly, the upside break of that falling channel, confirmed in October 2015, was followed by a two-year bull market.

Therefore, a potential upside break of the latest falling channel could be considered a sign of a long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Weekly line chart

As can be seen above, the price action seen over the last 14 months looks very similar to that seen in 2014 и рано 2015.

The previous bear market had stalled with the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) hitting oversold levels below 30 в январе 2015.

Similarly, the sell-off from the record high of $20,000 hit in December 2017 also ran out of steam with the RSI falling below 30 в декабре 2018.

Так, if history repeats itself, the cryptocurrency may see a sustained channel breakout later this year.

An early move above the upper edge of the channel, currently at $4,070, could be seen as several indicators are flashing early signs of bullish reversal. В дальнейшем, BTC is trading just below the breakout price at press time.

Such an early move, Однако, could be short-lived or may lack a strong follow-through as long as the 21-week moving average (Массачусетс) is trending south. As of writing, the MA resistance is seen at $4,073.

Daily chart

Both the higher lows-higher highs pattern and the ascending 5- and 10-day MAs seen on the daily chart indicate the path of least resistance is to the higher side.

В результате, the cryptocurrency may soon validate the bullish outside reversal candle on the three-day chart with a convincing move above $4,040, as discussed yesterday. That would allow a rally to recent highs near $4,200.

The short-term bullish case would weaken if prices drop below $3,927 (Mar. 17 низкий).

раскрытие: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.

Bitcoin image через Shutterstock; charts byTrading View

Bitcoin Диаграмма Echo Pattern виданная 2015 рынок быков

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